April 29th, 2020


Тот момент, когда маятник шатнулся в обратную сторону

Кто читал Зеланда, знает что такое маятники, а кто не читал - обязательно прочтите и узнайте.
По одну сторону маятника все время был страх, одобрение stayathome. Другой стороны не было, но начинают проявляться первые ласточки: а может, правильно сделала Швеция, а может не нужно было все так строго? А может нужно было так, а не вот так. Люблю наблюдать за таким.

И запись Кристофера Цермака из рассылки Монокля:

Sitting at home in London, I’m staring a little forlornly out of my window – at a rainy sky – while monitoring the news that other countries with lower death tolls than that of the UK are slowly emerging from lockdown. It’s tempting to ask a simple question with a tricky answer: did we get this wrong? I look at Austria, where smaller shops have now reopened, and think: did we get this wrong by not closing shops quickly enough? I look at Sweden, where shops never really closed, and think the opposite: did we get this wrong by being too draconian and not trusting citizens to keep their distance? I look at Germany or South Korea and think: did we get this wrong by not relying more on testing?

What is equally frustrating is that most countries, despite taking different paths, have relied on their own experts to guide the way; people who are prone to change their minds but who offer their newfound wisdom as gospel. And then there are the different types: some countries might have relied too much on their medical experts and not enough on economic or behavioural specialists. For others, it might be the other way around. The funny thing is that we all seem to trust our own and forget their fallibility. “You’re not wearing masks over there?” my perplexed father asked me from Vienna last week, as though the necessity of doing so had been clear all along. “The experts here still say that it won’t necessarily help,” I said, equally convinced in my righteousness. (Now I’m starting to change my mind).
Depending where you are, it’s become extremely tempting to look at other countries faring better and ask: did we get this wrong? Some initial evidence suggests that, yes, plenty of us did. Maybe Sweden actually has it right: so far its death toll is comparable to elsewhere but with far less economic cost. But does that mean that we shouldn’t trust the experts? Should we ignore our own government’s advice? Probably not. After all, if we don’t trust the experts then who can we trust. Still, if there is one lesson from this pandemic, it’s that our so-called experts need to do a better job of getting on the same page.